Description

This analysis provides a forecast of TRB prices using a Seasonal ARIMA model with Box-Cox transformation. The forecast includes different scenarios:

The confidence levels used are 68%, 95%, and 99.7%, which means there is a corresponding probability that the actual price will fall within the Bear and Bull case range for each confidence level.

The purpose of this model is to help investors understand potential future price movements and make informed decisions based on different market scenarios.

Bear_0.997 Bear_0.95 Bear_0.68 Base Bull_0.68 Bull_0.95 Bull_0.997
2025-07-27 26.956550 32.108922 37.741743 44.326716 51.782145 59.929836 69.475051
2025-08-03 19.715722 26.619799 34.891020 45.395551 58.237657 73.280429 92.076211
2025-08-10 14.882485 22.291779 31.848797 44.790269 61.542799 82.170582 109.130117
2025-08-17 11.991941 19.659940 30.192511 45.227980 65.600629 91.679328 126.948865
2025-08-24 9.694557 17.319029 28.423845 45.051714 68.508312 99.558641 142.787660
2025-08-31 7.604508 14.839462 26.017830 43.557659 69.273297 104.402148 154.636841
2025-09-07 6.473096 13.641347 25.289499 44.292503 73.042805 113.319960 172.148648
2025-09-14 5.234678 12.002894 23.614666 43.350026 74.191395 118.517902 184.649234
2025-09-21 4.572049 11.266436 23.285995 44.410997 78.295563 127.994448 203.385097
2025-09-28 3.577254 9.669502 21.252805 42.468800 77.588579 130.361303 212.002265
2025-10-05 3.211544 9.284733 21.313086 43.987747 82.342474 140.929413 232.767431
2025-10-12 2.838939 8.803165 21.120493 45.022602 86.331039 150.455555 252.274501
2025-10-19 2.502111 8.376525 21.066109 46.454560 91.322464 162.138292 276.068112
2025-10-26 2.171375 7.890301 20.840583 47.578195 95.913033 173.482902 299.921899
2025-11-02 1.754509 7.052164 19.748782 46.951163 97.434569 180.015144 316.637918
2025-11-09 1.484186 6.534454 19.258931 47.405434 100.818978 189.605886 338.327265
2025-11-16 1.220267 5.941573 18.496946 47.222537 103.016122 197.306088 357.259620
2025-11-23 0.935832 5.159888 17.144822 45.672014 102.585437 200.600304 369.274553
2025-11-30 0.802147 4.855353 16.912584 46.434684 106.454821 211.188182 393.221120
2025-12-07 0.626205 4.299777 15.928523 45.456501 106.943685 216.025684 407.980156
2025-12-14 0.545996 4.107627 15.886718 46.557655 111.476206 227.939521 434.594984
2025-12-21 0.396127 3.497630 14.546320 44.541736 109.751052 228.875624 443.106126
2025-12-28 0.355008 3.413197 14.732822 46.118400 115.265226 242.718965 473.442185